China radar: semiconductor sovereignty and the supercycle

AI-demand supercycle, multi-year contracts, regionalisation; China builds a sovereign industry while Europe pivots to tech sovereignty.

Semiconductors remain in a supercycle: AI infrastructure demand under constrained supply lifts prices (DRAM ~+44% QoQ, NAND >+50%) and earnings. AI-centric names (Nvidia, Broadcom, SK hynix, Micron, TSMC) averaged roughly +113% YoY revenue growth in Q1.

Structural Desk shifts: 1) move from annual to multi-year contracts — shortage and uncertainty lock supply for years; 2) market reallocation and entry by adjacent IT players securing critical components; 3) regionalisation: China advances a sovereign semiconductor industry; Europe, peripheral in advanced nodes, pivots to a large tech-sovereignty strategy.

APAC remains ~55% of the world market with ~+87% regional growth forecast for 2026 (WSTS).

Market Entry Readiness / Managed Launch: any APAC equipment, electronics or data-centre project needs a memory/foundry dependency map and China export-control scenarios.

Source: Global Business Monitoring, issue 2/2026 (HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs). Adapted for Corporate APAC Desk / Country radar.