The Global Activity Index (GAI) for Q1 2026 stood at 72% (+4 pp YoY). Oil & gas (+19 pp) and steel (+41 pp, helped by Western trade defence against cheap imports) contributed positively; transport & logistics (−39 pp) weighed after freight rates normalised.
A structural Desk signal: emerging-market companies lagged Western peers most in steel, autos and finance — resilience to current shocks is weaker.
Investors in Q2 were moderately positive (+8.8% QoQ for major equities). IT/AI drove gains; oil, steel, logistics and autos were flat to negative.
Market Intelligence pressure map: • Middle East / Strait of Hormuz — lasting energy security and maritime logistics shock; • protectionism and regionalisation in steel; • China as a pharma innovation source amid rising political pressure; • Chinese auto expansion into Europe and stress on Japan/Europe; • semiconductor supercycle plus China/Europe sovereignty agendas; • memory crisis in consumer electronics.
Source: Global Business Monitoring, issue 2/2026 (HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs). Adapted for Corporate APAC Desk / Country radar.
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