GAI Q1 2026: emerging markets lag the West

The quarter’s index distinctive feature: emerging-company resilience gap vs Western peers in steel, autos and finance.

GAI rose overall, but composition shifted: oil & gas and steel won the quarter (prices and trade defence); logistics lost.

For APAC market-selection teams, the emerging-vs-West resilience gap in steel, autos and finance matters more than the headline index. It affects: 1) partner and competitor assessment (Business Validation); 2) unit-economics stress tests under trade/logistics shocks (Entry Readiness); 3) prioritising markets with more resilient local champions.

Country radar takeaway: do not select markets on demand growth alone — test local players’ financial and operating resilience to protectionism, logistics breaks and price cycles.

Source: Global Business Monitoring, issue 2/2026 (HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs). Adapted for Corporate APAC Desk / Country radar.

Charts

Global Activity Index Q1 2026 by sector (all / developed / emerging)
Global Activity Index Q1 2026 by sector (all / developed / emerging)